This week, an agreement seemed to be in place to halt airstrikes on energy infrastructure for 30 days. Putin had ordered his military to stop the attacks after speaking with Trump on Tuesday, and Zelensky had also agreed to the deal following a call with the U.S. president the next day. However, disagreements over the details, the lack of a signed agreement, and disputes over which facilities would be included in the partial ceasefire have delayed its implementation.
Both countries will meet separately with the U.S. in Saudi Arabia on Monday in an attempt to finalize the deal. Until then, airstrikes will continue, and Russian forces are steadily advancing on the battlefield.
Russian Advances in Kursk and Sumy
Following recent gains in Russia’s Kursk region, Moscow is now working to push Ukrainian forces entirely out of its territory. However, as Ukraine fights closer to its own borders, it benefits from stronger support from its artillery and drones, countering Russia’s numerical superiority. On Wednesday, Zelensky dismissed claims by Putin and Trump that Ukrainian forces were surrounded in Kursk. Still, Russia has retaken the city of Sudzha, the largest Ukrainian-held settlement in the region, prompting the evacuation of 544 people.
In neighboring Sumy, Russian attempts to cross the border and advance deeper into the region remain limited and do not currently threaten the regional capital.
Russian Gains in Zaporizhzhia and Donbas
While Ukrainian forces have made some advances in Belgorod and parts of Pokrovsk, Russian troops have gained more ground in the past week. In addition to reclaiming much of Kursk, they have made moderate advances near Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a U.S.-based think tank that monitors the conflict.
The ISW suggests that Russian forces are intensifying their offensive operations in western Zaporizhzhia, aiming to advance toward the city of Zaporizhzhia. The Kremlin continues to demand full control over the region. “Russian forces are likely trying to pin down Ukrainian troops in other areas of the front line to prioritize certain efforts and make significant territorial gains as weather conditions improve and negotiations drag on,” one of its reports states.
According to Ukrainian military analysts, this escalation represents the first significant surge in fighting in the region since Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the summer of 2023. Since early March, Russian troops have been trying to break through Ukrainian defenses between Pyatykhatky and Mali Shcherbaky. In recent days, they have captured three additional settlements.
Ukrainian analysts note that the troops defending Zaporizhzhia are less experienced and have fewer resources than those in the eastern front. However, military analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko predicts that Russia will struggle to make substantial progress toward the city.
In the eastern front, the situation remains difficult for Ukraine. Russian forces continue their offensive near Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region and along the entire front line in Donetsk. Over the past few days, Russian troops have made small gains near Lyman, Toretsk, and Chasiv Yar. Despite this, Russia continues to suffer heavy losses as Ukrainian forces systematically launch counterattacks.
In Donetsk, Ukrainian troops have regained key positions in Kotlyne, Shevchenko, and Pishchane, near Pokrovsk, slowing Russian momentum in the area. Reports from the front indicate that Russian forces are using fewer heavy armored vehicles, such as tanks and infantry fighting vehicles.
Mikola Koval, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s Chervona Kalyna Brigade, told local media that Russian troops are now relying on unconventional transport, including bicycles, electric scooters, motorcycles, and off-road vehicles for their assaults. Kovalenko credits the recent success in halting Russian advances near Pokrovsk to improved military command. “Coordination between units has improved since General Mykhailo Drapati was appointed as head of eastern forces,” he told EFE.
Escalating Airstrikes and New Russian Tactics
These ground movements are accompanied by an intense aerial campaign from both sides, despite ongoing negotiations regarding energy infrastructure strikes.
On Thursday, Ukrainian forces launched a drone attack on the Engels airbase in Russia’s Saratov region. This week, Moscow accused Kyiv of carrying out one of the largest drone strikes since the war began.
Meanwhile, Russia has continued missile and drone attacks across Ukraine, with a particular focus on Zaporizhzhia and Odesa. On Friday, the Russian military launched 214 drones, including both attack drones and decoy drones meant to confuse Ukrainian air defenses, according to Ukraine’s Air Force.
Reports from Odesa suggest that Russia has adopted a new tactic: launching larger swarms of kamikaze drones to overwhelm air defenses. On Thursday, Russian drones gathered in large formations near the city, ascended to high altitudes—about 2 kilometers above the ground—and then plunged down onto urban areas.
“Russia has changed its tactics. The drones operate in large numbers to overload air defenses and electronic warfare systems,” said Andriy Kovalenko, an official from Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council.
This new approach has made the drones highly inaccurate. Their unpredictable trajectory and speed make them nearly impossible to shoot down with machine guns used by Ukraine’s mobile fire teams—soldiers in vehicles equipped with projectors, deployed due to shortages of more advanced air defense systems.
